This should make you worry, when it comes to that nutcake running that country.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/around-the-world-abc-news/iran-bomb-next-044310658.html

We are damned if we do and damned it we don't.

There is no artful solution to this mess.

Not that it changes a thing, but I blame Carter for this whole mess. After he threw to Shah of Iran under the bus I knew there was no way this was going to end well for anyone.

But we can easily spread that blame beyond Carter.

Why we haven't been working harder over the years to encourage and support the massive under ground resentment that many Iranians have for their government is beyond me.

And when the Obama administration was presented with a golden opportunity to provide that very encouragement and support in the recent uprising, the stood silently by and allowed the brutal supression of that movement without comment.

Sadly, all this is now water under the bridge. Too late for subtlety now, we've screwed the pooch on this one.

Now the only fix is the unthinkable. And with a son and a nephew in the Army, the unthinkable is particularly disturbing.

There is no way this ends well now, no matter what path is taken.

It's actually surprising a country like Iran still hasn't tested or otherwise deployed nuclear weapons despite the fact that the technology for making them has been freely available for more than half a century. Either international sanctions have been unusually effective (which I doubt) or secret deals have been made between governments which are preventing it.

"I was just reading mainstream news and AH it's the next boogieman! Be afraid!" "Panic!"


Particularly interesting because last year:

and:

November 2011: Pentagon wants to deride boasting of Iranian leaders.
CNN dutifully quotes experts ridiculing the notion that Iran could get near the U.S. with its navy.
July 2012: Pentagon wants to warn of the Grave Iranian threat. CNN hypes the very threats it was mocking just last year. Pentagon says jump, CNN says how high. And it isn't limited to CNN; every major multinational media conglomerate does the exact same thing. It isn't surprising, seeing as they have military and government intelligence agents working consulting in every major bureau. They are nothing more than a mouthpiece for the United States Government.

I know it may not be in your nature, but try not to believe everything you read.

Ah, Faust Jr. Returns. How're the Secret Archives of the Holy See? Knowledgeable I hope.
Have you calmed down yet, or are you just here to whine and run?
For a man so acutely versed in American history, you seem far too willing for our government to engage in subterfuge and fomenting foreign instability and civil war.
Not very American at all.

More likely than not, they have them already. Israel does as well, but they've never had a confirmed test.
Testing is something big countries with lots of spare space do to rattle their adversaries; a thermonuclear dick swing, if you will.
Both Iran and Israel are sovereign states in conflicted areas. While I don't agree with nuclear weapons in the least, if my neighbor has them, I'm gonna want them as well, if only as a deterrent. But I'm not gonna tell everyone outright.

When surrounded by your enemies, would you think it wise for them to know your capabilities?

You'd probably want your adversary to know that you can respond in a devastating manner to any attack they might be planning..Therefore if you had nukes you'd let them know, as Israel has done, but Iran has not..leading me to believe that they don't have 'em. Other countries having faceoffs make clear what they have to their adversaries..like Pakistan/India, USSR/US, N.Korea/the rest of the world..etc.. Like in Dr. Strangelove the final deterrent failed because the Soviets failed to let the US know that it had one, leading at the end of the movie to it being used.

Like I said..Israel has never had a confirmed test. The same applies.
Imagine an enemy merely thinking about the possibility of devastating response.
Intelligence regarding Israel's capability is impressive in scope. Same applies for Iran.
It's also all speculative. Rumor and musing.
Posture and bluff.
Say what you will about Iran, and Israel for that matter, being headed by "nutcase" regimes, but what they are not, is stupid. Aman and Mossad in particular are very good at what they do -- but like most State Intelligence apparatus, gathering intelligence has become secondary to disseminating it.

While I wouldn't really disagree with that characterization of Ahmadinejad, he isn't actually the supreme ruler of Iran...and arguably be only third most powerful, if you consider the guardian council.

Well..they do have to disseminate the intel they gather to the decision-makers, otherwise there's no point in collecting it.

Exactly. And they get to pick and choose what they show, how it's showed, etc. In the case of the CIA (see other recent post about CIA), they can say anything they like, even flat out lies, and no one is supposed to question it. The reason?
They're the CIA!
The 'authority' response.
What if we have additional information? No comment.
What if we have conflicting information? Can neither confirm nor deny.
How did you even get that wrong information? Classified.
Ok, what if we have a source that says how?
We'll out them, endangering their life. Or they're a whistleblower. Arrested for treason, or, failing that, some state secrets nonsense, or any other number of felonies.

Isn't that convenient?

Iran dosn't have the Bomb and Israel is a rogue terrorist state (with 400 nukes)!!

If you dont agree please disprove cause all evidence points to such a conclusion!

Your job to prove, not ours to disprove.

Poor Feral...

Poor Feral...what? Are you pitying me for some reason?
Don't get emotional. Just tell me why you feel I should be pitied.

Whats the point! The chest pounding neanderthal so called patriots have been spoon fed government and corporate lies for so long there is no hope of getting through to them anymore. Let the apathetic masses bury thier heads in the sand only to pull it out long enough to scream "We're number 1" and back in the hole.

Support the troops and bring them home.

Perhaps the user known as 'diegorev' lacks some perspective, but there are theocratic and authoritarian elements to American government, and the processes which are intended to shape said government.

Yup. As time passes, they appear to become more transparent.
That being said, Iran is not currently an aggressor, despite what media, and indeed, the US and Israeli regimes would have everyone believe.
That's more than one could say about the US, unfortunately.

It is going to happen, unless we invade, which we simply cannot. Not for this. We will choose the lesser evil. Call me a realist.

On the bright side, Pakistan already has nukes. And that is a far nuttier state. Iran with nukes couldn't be much worse.

The real problem is the very existence of nuclear weapons themselves. It is the nature of technology that it diffuses; it spreads. The genie is out of the bottle.



You and I have discussed this chapter of history before. (Bizarrely, that discussion seems to have vanished.) I'm not trying to rehash that discussion with you. I just want to float an opposing viewpoint for the crowd to do with what they will:

I see nothing Carter could have done. When a ruler is as widely despised by his own people as the Shah was, how can he possibly hope to stay in power? Well, by sheer brute force, except that his army had basically abandoned him, declaring themselves neutral. Which left Carter with what options, other than sending our own military in to crush a (very) popular uprising?

I do think the Iranians unwittingly chose the worse of two evils. But this does not affect my point about Carter.

History shows that Iran doesn't do war, you have to attack it first